Fitch Ratings said that Greece’s ratings could fall sharply if the country fails to regain access to the capital market at affordable rates by the end of 2011.
Greece is effectively “fully financed” throughout 2011, assuming it remains on track under its EU-IMF programme, according to Fitch.
However, the programme assumes that Greece is able to partially refinance term debt maturing in 2012 and beyond in the market.
David Riley, head of Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, said that 2011 will be a critical year in the euro area sovereign debt crisis.
It “will either mark the beginning of its end or, if policy goals and market expectations are not realised, potentially lead to it further broadening and intensifying”, according to a Fitch report.
"The combination of an enhanced European-level policy response, fiscal austerity and structural reform at the national level, as well as a gradually more broad-based and secure economic recovery will mark the beginning of the end of the euro area sovereign debt crisis," said Riley.
"However, if one or more of these expectations is not realised, the crisis could broaden and intensify," he added.
The political commitment to the 2011 budget targets is very strong, including a willingness to announce further fiscal measures if necessary, according to Fitch.
“Failure to deliver the promised fiscal consolidation will exacerbate concerns about solvency and likely result in negative sovereign rating actions”, said Fitch head analyst.
Greece is effectively “fully financed” throughout 2011, assuming it remains on track under its EU-IMF programme, according to Fitch.
However, the programme assumes that Greece is able to partially refinance term debt maturing in 2012 and beyond in the market.
David Riley, head of Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, said that 2011 will be a critical year in the euro area sovereign debt crisis.
It “will either mark the beginning of its end or, if policy goals and market expectations are not realised, potentially lead to it further broadening and intensifying”, according to a Fitch report.
"The combination of an enhanced European-level policy response, fiscal austerity and structural reform at the national level, as well as a gradually more broad-based and secure economic recovery will mark the beginning of the end of the euro area sovereign debt crisis," said Riley.
"However, if one or more of these expectations is not realised, the crisis could broaden and intensify," he added.
The political commitment to the 2011 budget targets is very strong, including a willingness to announce further fiscal measures if necessary, according to Fitch.
“Failure to deliver the promised fiscal consolidation will exacerbate concerns about solvency and likely result in negative sovereign rating actions”, said Fitch head analyst.
